Why you want a mobile QB as your fantasy football starter

The quarterback position in the NFL has seen plenty of transformation over the years, resulting in its statistical dominance, particularly over the past decade. Perhaps the most notable, skills-related shift at that spot has been the recent influx of mobile quarterbacks, tilting the position’s balance to the point that — at least in fantasy leagues that utilize ESPN’s scoring and singular-starter settings — you now need to seek some mobility from your fantasy quarterback.

Well, if you’re planning to go with a singular starter, that is.

The numbers bear this out. In merely the past three seasons, the eight largest fantasy point totals by a quarterback came from a group from which six attempted at least 60 rushing attempts and scored at least 60 fantasy points on those plays alone. Four of those six were 100-carry campaigns that contributed 100-plus fantasy points rushing. Last season, the top 10 scoring quarterbacks averaged 89.5 rushing attempts; that’s a substantial increase from the 52.3 attempts that the top 10 quarterbacks averaged just 10 seasons earlier, in 2012.

Additionally, four of the widely regarded top six fantasy quarterbacks entering 2023 have among the best reputations for their mobility — Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields — while one of the rookie class’ top picks, Anthony Richardson, is considered one of the most mobile prospects of this generation. Our projections page reflects the strong correlation between mobility and fantasy success.

Cockcroft: Mobile QBs have much higher floors

To the point about “singular starters” above, if you’re one of those fantasy football managers who resists the painstaking levels of homework involved with going cheap at the position and potentially streaming on multiple occasions in-season, a mobile quarterback is the way to go. Thanks to their rushing contributions, these quarterbacks are less likely to damage your team’s weekly result, thanks to the soft, cushy fantasy points base that their legs provide.

To illustrate, I selected groups of the 12 most mobile and 12 most pocket passing-oriented quarterbacks of the past five seasons (2018-22). The 12 most mobile, all of whom averaged at least twice the league’s average for fantasy points rushing per game in at least two of those five seasons and for the collective five-year period, include Allen, Fields, Hurts, Jackson, Daniel Jones, Marcus Mariota, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. The 12 least mobile, all of whom averaged at best half the league’s average for fantasy points rushing per game in at least two of those five seasons as well as for 2018 to ’22 combined, include Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Mac Jones, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford.

The mobile group had a 10th-percentile overall fantasy point total of 8.8, while the pocket passers’ 10th-percentile number was 6.8. Additionally, when the collective mobile QB group faced one of the eight toughest matchups in the given season — that ranking decided by fantasy points allowed to the position in that specific year — it averaged 16.8 total fantasy points. The pocket passers, by comparison, averaged 13.72 fantasy points when facing one of the eight toughest matchups.

Don’t confuse that as advice to pick one mobile quarterback and/or a “set it and forget it” positional strategy, as these days it’s imperative to squeeze as much fantasy production as you can from the position, preferably 20-plus points every week.

In fact, the numbers bear out that a mobile quarterback provides your roster a strong, stable base from which to begin each week, but that when that individual faces a particularly stiff defense, you should bench him for even a skilled pocket passer facing one of the league’s weakest defenses. The 12 aforementioned pocket passers, when battling one of the eight easiest matchups in the given season, averaged 19.1 fantasy points, 2.3 (or 14%) more than did the 12 mobile quarterbacks against the eight toughest matchups.

That might run counter to the former strategic angle of several years back, when many believed that a later-round, risk/reward mobile quarterback would serve a good matchups complement to a starting pocket passer. These days, you should begin with the mobile quarterback and complement him with a matchups-oriented pocket passer. In other words, a Fields-Cousins combination makes a heck of a lot of sense.

Bowen: Prioritize mobile QBs in your draft strategy

I’m with you, Tristan. And here are some numbers I think you’ll like. Now, I’m calling it the “25-25 Club” — quarterbacks who rush for at least 25 yards per game and attempt 25 passes per game. Over the past four NFL seasons, we’ve seen this a total of 17 times. During that span, eight of those quarterbacks have finished as top-five scorers in points per game, with 15 of the 17 finishing 11th or better.

Remember, these aren’t the static, dropback throwers that I played against back in the early 2000’s. Five- and seven-step drops. Empty sets, with the quarterback under center. Games on AstroTurf. Nah. These guys today can run, play off schedule and create consistent conflict for defenses with their mobility, whether on designed rushes or on scramble attempts.

The game has changed. So have the quarterbacks. And you need to get on board to boost your fantasy lineup.

Just look at last season in the NFL. Eight of the top 10 overall fantasy scorers at the quarterback position — Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence, Fields, Jones — all finished 13th or better in QB rushing totals. And let’s add Lamar here, too. Jackson only played in 12 games in 2022, but he ranked second overall in rushing (764 yards) behind Fields. And his average of 19.67 fantasy points per game? That was good for fifth best in the league.

Now, Tristan, there is a slight catch, because these mobile quarterbacks are going much earlier in fantasy drafts. Last year, the top three quarterbacks in fantasy points per game — Hurts, Allen and Mahomes — were all drafted in the first six rounds. And they were also among the first six quarterbacks to come off the board. That meshes with the current ADPs, as the top three, plus Burrow, Jackson, Fields and Justin Herbert all register an ADP under 60.

My quarterback draft strategy has changed because of this, too. I can’t wait on the position anymore, settling for a pocket thrower in the 10th round (or later). Nope, I’m getting in much earlier on the mobile QBs this year, as the rushing totals and the overall data tells us that you need a mover at the position. That’s free money in fantasy football.

Final thoughts

Cockcroft: I wholeheartedly agree, Matt, and past fantasy draft strategy reflects that the upside mobile quarterbacks bring you warrants paying the heftier price tag at the position, as was once the case more than a decade ago.

Of the 20 quarterbacks from my mobile group who went within the first 50 picks on average of any ESPN fantasy draft in the past 10 seasons (2013-22), 12 finished that year with at least 300 fantasy points and an average of at least 20 points per game. Narrowing the scope to only the past five seasons, 14 of 15 quarterbacks averaged 20-plus points and eight of those 14 finished with at least 350 points. Additionally, the lone quarterback to fall short of the 20-point average, Lamar Jackson, finished with a 19.7-point average and was sixth at his position in total fantasy points at the time he got hurt in Week 13.

The profit potential present in mobile quarterbacks — particularly relevant to those intrigued by Richardson’s skills — also makes them appealing late-round dart throws. Three of the five best seasons, going by total fantasy points and each resulting in at least 300 total and an average of 20 points per game, that came from quarterbacks selected outside the first 10 rounds of an ESPN draft came from this group (Mahomes’ 2018, Jackson’s 2019 and Ryan Tannehill’s 2020). Meanwhile, a fourth, Herbert, rushed 55 times for 234 yards and five touchdowns in 2020 and was regarded as a decently mobile quarterback at the time he entered the NFL.

Hesitant as I have been to pay up for a quarterback over the years, I’m all in on these types for 2023.

Bowen: Let’s finish with a thought on how these mobile quarterbacks are deployed to give you an edge in fantasy matchups. Yes, you want the designed rushes in your lineup. Zone read, Q power, Q counter, Q draw and more. You’re stealing there in the scoring column.

Hurts led all quarterbacks last season with 99 designed rushes. Fields checked in with 77 designed rushes, followed by Jackson (73), Allen (54) and Jones (51). Plus, these quarterbacks are more than just “situational runners.” Instead, the QB run game is a foundational aspect of the respective offenses, which also leads to built-in RPOs and play-action concepts.

Scramble attempts are also a critical factor of your quarterback’s fantasy profile. Fields led the league in scramble yards (640) this past season, with Allen, Jones, Mahomes, Hurts, Smith, Lawrence and Burrow all finishing in the top 10. QBs here with the ability to escape, extend and work the edges, complete with the ball-carrier vision to produce outside of structure as a runner.

And, to summarize, a quick glance at our current top 10 QB rankings tells the story of what Tristan and I have been writing on here. The high-level, dual-threat quarterbacks are in there, along with the players who have an elevated sense of mobility to their games. It’s really a look at the modern quarterback position, which is proven to create weekly fantasy production in your lineup.