29 days, four questions: Diving into Nick Bosa’s holdout from the 49ers

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — While it’s shaping up to be one of the least acrimonious holdouts in NFL history, the contract impasse between the San Francisco 49ers and star defensive end Nick Bosa is now on Day 29.

While Bosa has stayed at home in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, away from the team since the start of training camp, there have been no signs of frustration from either side. No scrubbing of Bosa’s Instagram account. No trade requests. No warning shots fired through the media. Nothing.

Throughout the nearly one month that Bosa has been holding out, neither side has expressed any doubt that a deal will eventually get done. In fact, almost nothing has been said, either publicly or off the record, as general manager John Lynch noted at the start of training camp that the team and Brian Ayrault, Bosa’s agent, would keep their negotiations private.

When Lynch or coach Kyle Shanahan have been asked about Bosa, they’ve repeatedly insisted that he will come back ready to pick up where he left off.

“I don’t know if Bosa has ever done a training camp and he has done pretty good,” Shanahan said. “It’s a little different when you’re a defensive lineman. Everybody wants people here and you want to do that stuff, but it doesn’t affect the team as much from a defensive end standpoint. I have as much confidence in Nick as any player I’ve ever been around in terms of how he prepares and everything. I know they’re going to get it right, both sides, and I’m excited for when I do see him.”

Still, with the start of the regular season Sept. 10 against the Pittsburgh Steelers inching closer, it’s fair to wonder when the NFL’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year will return to the fold.

“Hopefully sooner than later,” Shanahan said Tuesday.

Why is Bosa holding out?

Bosa is entering the fifth and final year of his rookie contract. He was eligible to negotiate an extension last offseason, but he and the team agreed to put it off until this year. That decision paid off for Bosa, who won the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award after posting a league-leading 18.5 sacks and 58 quarterback pressures (third in the NFL) in 2022.

That also put Bosa in position to become the highest-paid defender in the NFL. It’s a notion the Niners don’t dispute, which means this is just about finding what Lynch calls the “sweet spot” that can give Bosa what he deserves while ensuring the team is thinking long-term with its salary cap situation.

In deals of this magnitude, there are a lot of moving parts that must be considered, including signing bonus, roster bonuses, full guarantees, injury guarantees, incentives, contract length and contract structure. At 25, it’s not unrealistic to think Bosa could cash in with another big contract in four or five years.

All of that plays into the calculus of this deal.

What kind of contract is Bosa expected to get?

In 2020, Bosa’s brother Joey signed a five-year, $135 million extension with the Los Angeles Chargers, a deal Ayrault also negotiated. At the time, it was the biggest deal for a defender in NFL history.

Bosa has said he isn’t too concerned about taking his turn on the highest-paid mantle, but that remains the expectation. Which means any new deal would need to surpass Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald in average annual value ($31.67 million per year) and Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt in full guarantees ($80 million). The question has never seemed to be whether Bosa will exceed those benchmarks, but by how much?

Is Bosa being fined for his absence?

According to the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement, players in Bosa’s situation can be fined up to $40,000 per practice missed. Because Bosa is still on his rookie contract, however, the CBA allows the 49ers to waive those fines, which is what Lynch has said the Niners will do.

“I don’t think that’s really necessary [to fine Bosa],” Lynch said. “That’s not going to get him in here. We’re both striving for the same thing, so we’ll focus on that.”

Is there a deadline for a contract to get done?

Unlike with, say, the franchise tag, there is no official deadline for Bosa’s extension to get done. Of course, the regular season starts Sept. 10 and the Niners would like to get him back in the mix with enough time for him to get into football shape. He was never going to play in any preseason games, so those missed snaps aren’t a factor.

Staying in shape has also never been an issue for Bosa, and one of the reasons the Niners haven’t minded waiting is they know he will come back in good condition. But Lynch has also said that when he played he needed about three weeks to get ready for the grind of the season. While that isn’t necessarily what Bosa needs, we’re already past the three-week threshold.

“I needed that to get ready,” Lynch said. “I don’t know what that right time period [is for Bosa] … but I think that’s important to give yourself the best chance to not only play at the highest level, but to stay healthy and get yourself primed and ready, calloused to play.”

From a scheme standpoint, Bosa hasn’t been around new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks save for a couple of days at the team’s full-squad minicamp in June. But Wilks isn’t making major changes to the scheme, and what he asks of Bosa won’t change, either.

“You guys have been around here longer than I have and I’ve seen it from afar, but I think he’ll be fine when he gets here,” Wilks said.