First look at the conference championships: Our early preview of Lions-49ers, plus the Ravens’ outlook

Three of four divisional round games are in the books as the NFL playoffs keep rolling along, and next weekend’s NFC Championship Game matchup is set. The Lions will advance and play the 49ers in San Francisco for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. On the other side of the bracket, we know the Ravens will host the AFC Championship Game — but the matchup depends on who wins Sunday night’s Chiefs-Bills game.

To get you ready for next week’s slate, Stephen Holder picked out the biggest thing to watch in the NFC matchup, and Seth Walder explored how all three teams can win to reach Super Bowl LVIII. (We will update with the AFC matchup after Chiefs-Bills.)

Jump to a matchup:
Lions-49ers | TBD-Ravens

NFC Championship Game

When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

What to know: The 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1994. To put that in perspective, quarterback Steve Young threw three touchdown passes to Jerry Rice in that Super Bowl XXIX win over the Chargers. Still, the Niners will be making their seventh appearance in the NFC Championship Game since 2011. San Francisco has gone 2-4 in those games, three of which have come under coach Kyle Shanahan since 2019. Shanahan has a chance to pass Bill Walsh for the best postseason win percentage in club history with a win over Detroit.

As for quarterback Brock Purdy, he’s trying to build a legacy of his own, and winning this game would go a long way after he was knocked out of the conference title game with a elbow injury last season. But the Lions are also trying to rewrite the history books. They’ve already done something most Lions fans have never personally witnessed, by winning two playoff games for the first time since 1957. And they’re doing it with an explosive offense that figures to test the 49ers’ elite defense.

Orchestrating it all is quarterback Jared Goff, who is one of the best stories in this NFL season. The Rams castoff has a chance to go to his second Super Bowl after powering the Lions with 287 passing yards and two touchdown passes in Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay. If he takes the Lions to Las Vegas, they might just build him a statue in the Motor City. — Holder

Why the 49ers will win: Yes, Purdy’s performance in the divisional round against the Packers — when he posted a negative-6% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats — caused concern. But the best way to judge a team is with a long lens, and when we do that, the 49ers still look plenty menacing.

And let’s think about the matchup here. The 49ers have the most efficient passing offense in football. What is the Lions’ big weakness? Defending the pass. Entering Sunday, the Lions ranked 30th in EPA allowed per opposing dropback. San Francisco’s plethora of offensive playmakers will be a nightmare for Detroit, and while the Lions’ offense is also effective, they don’t have near the same firepower.

Plus, the 49ers have stars galore on defense to counter. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave lead a pass rush that can get pressure on the QB despite only blitzing 20% of the time (sixth-lowest), and cornerback Charvarius Ward and linebacker Fred Warner should be able to at least mitigate Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. — Walder

Why the Lions will win: The Lions have two major factors working for them in the NFC Championship Game. First, a shaky Purdy. Until his game-winning drive against the Packers, Purdy looked plenty fallible. He has led an ultra-efficient offense over the course of the season, but if he’s rattled at all, that gives Detroit hope.

Second, one thing you can do against the 49ers is run on them. That plays right into the Lions’ strength, as they rushed for 114 yards against Tampa Bay. They lean run-heavy, with the 11th-highest run rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and yet they are the sixth-most efficient running team in the league in terms of EPA per play, thanks to strong play from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs this season.

Finally, the 49ers are one of the most efficient pass defenses because of their ability to defend deep passes, ranking third in EPA per play allowed on passes of 20 or more air yards. But that’s a wasted skill against Detroit, who throws deep just 7% of the time, the lowest rate in the NFL. The Lions will need the ball to bounce their way a few times, but they certainly have hope. — Walder

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AFC Championship Game

When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)

Potential matchup: The Ravens will play the winner of Sunday night’s Chiefs-Bills game at home.

Ravens’ reason for optimism: Baltimore didn’t allow a single offensive touchdown to the Texans in the divisional round matchup. The Ravens’ defense didn’t blink against Houston the way the Browns did in the wild-card round, and the unit was dominant, particularly against the run where Baltimore allowed negative-0.29 EPA per play. It’s nothing new for the Ravens’ defense, which now ranks first in EPA per play over the course of the season, playoffs included.

Oh, and did I mention that quarterback Lamar Jackson stayed red hot, with a 94 QBR against Houston? Baltimore is rolling on both sides of the ball and will be favored over either potential opponent in the AFC Championship Game. — Walder