Why Zack Moss could be an upgrade for Bengals at RB

CINCINNATI — What happened on the first day of free agency felt inevitable.

The Cincinnati Bengals moved on from running back Joe Mixon, a seven-year starter who amassed some of the biggest numbers in franchise history — third in total rushing yards (6,412) and second in career rushing touchdowns (49).

But the future numbers were more meaningful in this decision — namely, Mixon’s $8.9 million salary cap hit for 2024 and a $3 million roster bonus due on Monday. The Bengals and Houston Texans agreed on a trade Tuesday that sent Mixon to the AFC South winners in exchange for a seventh-round draft pick, according to a source. Mixon is one of seven running backs with Pro Bowl experience who have changed teams, the most during any NFL offseason.

But that didn’t happen until the Bengals found his replacement. Cincinnati agreed to terms with ex-Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss, who agreed to a two-year deal worth up to $8 million. The move serves as a win-win for the Bengals. It gives Cincinnati a running back on a cheaper deal while adding someone who could be an on-field upgrade.

Improving the run game was a priority when the Bengals evaluated last season, when they finished 9-8 and last in the AFC North.

“I think we did a really good job of looking at [the run game],and there are [areas to improve] in all those position groups that can help us get better in that area,” new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said in February at the NFL scouting combine.

Last season with the Colts, Moss had a blistering start while starter Jonathan Taylor began the year on the physically unable to perform list. While Taylor missed the first four weeks, Moss ranked 10th in the NFL in total rushing yards and seventh in success rate, which measures the rate of plays that result in positive expected points added (EPA), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The advanced metrics were also kind to Moss throughout the rest of the season. Through the first seven weeks, Moss ranked third in the NFL in rush yards over expectation (RYOE). The fifth-year player out of Utah battled injuries during the back half of the season but still managed to finish eighth in RYOE at plus-129. Mixon was 38th in the same category.

Those are important numbers in the context of what the Bengals lacked last season. At the combine, Pitcher said squeezing out more from the run game was a point of emphasis when the coaching staff evaluated 2023.

“That’s a teamwide thing,” Pitcher said. “It’s the [offensive] line maybe straining to finish a little bit. It’s the back making somebody miss at the second level. It’s the quarterback making sure we’re in the right checks. It’s the receivers finishing.”

Pitcher, who was promoted to offensive coordinator after Brian Callahan was named the Tennessee Titans head coach, noted the metrics showed Cincinnati had an efficient rushing attack. Last year, the Bengals ranked 17th in total rushing EPA, 17th in first downs per carry and 14th in chunk run rate (runs of 10 or more yards), according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Mixon also had solid overall numbers. He had 1,410 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 total touchdowns, which netted him a $350,000 bonus.

But Cincinnati needed a more explosive rushing game to ease pressure on the passing attack. In June, quarterback Joe Burrow said having big ground gains against run-friendly looks was crucial for the Bengals in 2023.

“We all know teams plan to play us with how they played us last year and the end of the year before,” Burrow said.

That never fully materialized. Last season, Mixon had the third-most carries against light boxes (six or fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage) but finished 18th in ROYE in those situations. Moss was ninth, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Signing Moss enables the Bengals to save salary cap space that can be allocated elsewhere on the roster. It also could bolster Cincinnati’s offense as the Bengals try to become Super Bowl contenders again.