There are seven weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season, but we’re already looking to January and how the 14-team playoff picture could look on the road to Super Bowl LVIII.
After the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 11, the 9-1 Eagles are the overwhelming favorites to get the 1-seed in the NFC. The 7-3 Chiefs, however, have a fight on their hands in the AFC with the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins, which both have three losses as well.
Which teams have the best chance to get a bye through to the divisional round? Which teams could sneak into the wild-card round of the postseason?
We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences, along with odds for the favorites to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl. We also have seeding projections for the AFC and NFC, so you can see the most likely matchups in each conference, and an early look at the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
Here’s everything you need as we get closer to the NFL playoffs (updated on Tuesday, Nov. 21):
Jump to a section:
AFC: Full projections | Seeding
NFC: Full projections | Seeding
Matchup of the week
Race for the 2024 No. 1 pick
Projecting the AFC playoff field
FPI sees clear favorites in all four divisions in the AFC.
The 5-5 Cincinnati Bengals now have a 10% chance to make the playoffs, per FPI, following the news of Joe Burrow’s injury. Before the injury, they had a 28% chance to make the playoffs. FPI also gives them a 0.3% chance to win the AFC North.
The 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs are still on track to get the 1-seed, which comes with a bye until the divisional round. In the opening wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.
The most surprising team might be the 6-4 Houston Texans, which have gone from potential No. 1 pick candidates to the fringes of postseason contention.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
And here’s where things stand in the NFC, which has three divisions all but locked up nearly 11 weeks into the season. The North is still up for grabs.
The 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles have the inside track to get to the 1-seed, which comes with a bye until the divisional round. In the opening wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.
The wild-card race in the NFC is wide open, as seed Nos. 6 and 7 could come from a host of teams.
Week 12 game of note
We could get clarity in the NFC North in Week 12, as the 4-6 Atlanta Falcons host the 5-5 New Orleans Saints on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox).
A win by the Falcons would boost their chances to take the division crown. They will start second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who was benched for two games and a quarter. A Saints win, however, means it would be an uphill climb for Atlanta to win the North.
The race for the No. 1 pick in 2024
The 2024 NFL draft likely will feature two quarterbacks fighting for the No. 1 spot, as Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are ESPN’s top-ranked prospects. Which teams could take them? After Week 11’s Sunday results, the picture has become clearer.
The 3-8 Chicago Bears own the 1-8 Carolina Panthers‘ first-round pick (via last year’s pre-draft trade), and that selection has a 57% chance to land at No. 1, according to FPI. It projects Chicago’s other pick with a 4% chance to land at No. 1.
The 2-9 Arizona Cardinals also have two first-round picks, with FPI projecting their original selection at No. 2 and the 6-4 Houston Texans‘ pick — which was acquired in the move up last April — at No. 23.
The 3-8 New York Giants won in Week 11 and saw their odds for the top pick decrease by 27%.
NFL playoff schedule
Week 18 games are on Jan. 7 and then it’s on to the postseason. Here’s when each round of games will be played:
Jan. 13-15: Wild-card round
Jan. 20-21: Divisional round
Jan. 28: AFC and NFC Championship Games
Feb. 11: Super Bowl LVIII (in Las Vegas)