What’s next for Jags’ Trevor Lawrence: A $50 million contract? A breakout season? Both?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — When Trevor Lawrence first walked into the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ facility as the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, he was trying to figure out how things worked.

What’s life in the NFL like? What kind of offense will he be learning? What will his teammates be like? Where’s the dining area?

It can be overwhelming, especially in the first few weeks when the coaches and staff are giving out loads of information every day. Which is why Lawrence, three years later, makes sure to spend some time every day at a different table during lunch, trying to help ease the transition for the new group of rookies.

That, receiver Christian Kirk said, shows how much Lawrence has grown as a leader since becoming a Jaguar.

“The vocal part of it has been big,” Kirk said. “… Getting to know everybody at a personal level on the team. [That is] what great leaders do. You see him sitting at different tables with rookies at lunch and stuff like that. That says a lot about your quarterback and a leader in general.

“He’s just taking that next step. I feel like he already had it, but he is just really taking pride in making sure we’re going to where we need to go as an offense.”

What does that next step include?

Potentially joining the group of quarterbacks who are making $50 million or more per season. The Jaguars and Lawrence’s representatives have spent the past several months negotiating a contract extension. The deal would be the richest in franchise history and is expected to include an annual average salary of more than $50 million, which would make him the sixth quarterback in the NFL to surpass that mark.

The team hopes to reach an agreement before the Sept. 8 opener, as general manager Trent Baalke has a policy of not negotiating contracts during the season. Speaking at the beginning of the offseason conditioning program in April, Lawrence said he and his wife, Marissa, love being in Jacksonville and he likes where the organization is headed — but he did say it would be nice to have an extension done before the season.

“I’d love to obviously be a Jag for as long as possible,” he said. “… That would be great [to have it done], but like I said, going into my fourth year, it’s not like this is necessarily going to be my last season [with the team]. There’s a lot that could happen.”

What could Lawrence’s deal look like when it arrives? Why are the Jaguars willing to get the deal done now despite a lack of team success in 2023? And could Lawrence be heading for a breakout season?

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LAWRENCE, 24, IS one of four extension-eligible quarterbacks set to join the $50 million club — Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Dallas’ Dak Prescott are the others — and those deals could all come before the season begins.

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff kicked off the extension season in May, signing a four-year, $212 million deal that included a $78 million signing bonus, $113.6 million fully guaranteed and an annual average salary of $53 million. That last number makes Goff the second-highest paid quarterback based on annual salary, behind Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow ($55 million).

Burrow was the fourth quarterback to sign a deal last year that averaged more than $50 million annually. Each one reset the quarterback market in terms of average annual salary, beginning with Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts ($51 million) in April and followed by Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson ($52 million) in May, the Los Angeles Chargers‘ Justin Herbert ($52.5 million) in July, and capped by Burrow one day before the 2023 season began. As each deal was signed, the terms inched higher.

Comparatively, Lawrence is scheduled to make $5.67 million this season and will count $11.7 million against the salary cap because of the proration of his $24.12 million signing bonus. The Jaguars also picked up his fifth-year option in May, which guarantees Lawrence will earn $25.7 million in 2025.

One NFL front office executive not affiliated with the Jaguars told ESPN they expect Lawrence’s extension to have an average annual salary just ahead of Goff’s $53 million, but not ahead of Burrow’s $55 million. As for the structure of the deal, it should be similar to the deal Goff received, the executive said. Goff’s contract is a four-year extension that kicks in after the 2024 season and includes a $78 million signing bonus. The Lions will spread that number over five seasons at $14.6 million per season.

That might seem strange given that Lawrence’s on-field accomplishments don’t match those of the other QBs earning $50 million, but it does make financial sense for the Jaguars — for two main reasons:

First, getting the deal done this offseason instead of next helps the team with proration of the contract, which, depending on the deal’s structure, might give the team two more years to spread out the salary cap hit. The Jaguars currently have the third-most salary cap space ($35.1 million), per ESPN’s Roster Management System, but they rank 21st in the NFL with $26.1 million in salary cap space in 2025.

Spreading out Lawrence’s numbers would be key after the big five-year contract linebacker Josh Allen signed this offseason. That contract makes Allen’s salary cap numbers soar to $40.2 million in 2027 and $40.9 million in 2028. And the Jaguars also have two more players in line for second contracts by then: LB Travon Walker (who would be on his fifth-year option in 2026) and RT Anton Harrison (who would be on his fifth-year option in 2027).

Second, the Jaguars could be forced to pay more if they wait longer, especially if Lawrence flourishes in his third season in coach Doug Pederson’s offense and leads the Jaguars back to the playoffs, and Tagovailoa, Prescott and Love get new deals before him. “It’s just going to get more expensive,” the front office executive said. “The price is only going to go up.”

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SINCE LAWRENCE’S ARRIVAL, the Jaguars have returned to relevance in the AFC South and the AFC. Lawrence is fourth in Jaguars history in passing yards (11,770) and passing touchdowns (58) and led the Jaguars to a division title in 2022 before missing the playoffs in 2023. They were tied atop the AFC standings at the halfway mark of last season before going 3-6 as a result of turnovers and mounting injuries.

But at this point in his career, Lawrence doesn’t have the highlights on his résumé that the other quarterbacks earning $50 plus million a year have. He has a 21-31 record as a starter (including playoffs), leads the NFL in turnovers (60) and fumbles lost (21 — seven more than second place) and averages 6.7 yards per attempt (ranks 29th) since entering the league in 2021. His QBR (50.6) is 22nd among quarterbacks who have started at least 20 games in that same span.

In comparison, Burrow, Goff and Hurts led their teams to Super Bowl appearances (Goff with the Rams). Jackson is a two-time MVP and has an AFC Championship Game appearance. Herbert has no playoff wins, but his QBR (65.3) ranks fourth among QBs who have started at least 20 games over the past three seasons. Herbert is also third in passing yards (12,887) and fifth in passing TDs (83) over that same span.

So why would the Jaguars invest so much in Lawrence? It’s because of his age (he turns 25 in October), leadership and the flashes of elite play that he has shown in the past three seasons.

“You can’t win on stats,” said an NFL agent, who requested anonymity because they didn’t want to comment publicly on open contract negotiations of someone they don’t represent. “You’ve got to go with youth. It takes time for quarterbacks to peak, and Goff is a great example.”

Lawrence is not a statistically consistent top 10 quarterback at this point, but he is good and might be headed there soon, the agent said. The Jaguars know it is not easy finding a quarterback who has Lawrence’s talent, and teams have to pay what the market dictates, which in Lawrence’s case is $50 million annually.

“Great quarterbacks don’t grow on trees,” the agent said. “Plus, there’s something to be said about keeping the face of your franchise happy.”

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PEDERSON IS HAPPY with what he has seen from Lawrence this offseason after the disappointing way last season ended. Lawrence battled a concussion, ankle and shoulder injuries in the final six games and the Jaguars went 1-5 — he missed the only game the Jaguars won with the shoulder injury — and missed the playoffs.

Lawrence’s growth as a leader in the locker room and on offense is the most noticeable improvement, Pederson said.

“He’s becoming the vocal leader in the locker room, on the field, in meetings,” Pederson said. “… When we got him three years ago, he was just learning our system and kind of quiet and just trying to go through the motions a little bit of just trying to adapt to us and get a feel for us. But now he’s engaging, now he’s giving us ideas, now he’s giving us suggestions and ideas and really becoming another coach, a set of eyes, on the field.

“Schematically, repetition [in the offense] goes a long way and utilizing that repetition to benefit your football team and that’s where Trevor’s really taken, I think, the next step. Now it’s got to translate on the field into wins and losses and touchdowns versus INTs and stuff like that, but that’s where I’ve seen the biggest growth in the few years that we’ve been together.”

Offensive coordinator Press Taylor said Lawrence has full ownership of the offensive system Pederson brought with him when he was hired in 2022. With that also comes the understanding of what needs to happen in practice during OTAs, which is markedly different from practice during training camp and the season.

“He understands we’re putting in our schemes [on offense and defense],” Taylor said. “These plays aren’t aligned to attacking a certain coverage. So you’re seeing a little bit of growth of he’s quick to find a checkdown, he’s quick to move on and progression [in his reads] because this isn’t the coverage this [play] is built for.

“So you see a little bit of that and then you see the way he communicates with the guys around him … I think that’s coming naturally for him.”

Should Lawrence have gotten to where he is now a little quicker? Is he behind in his development? Not at all, Pederson said, but the fact that he is here now is an indication that Lawrence could be headed for the breakout season that has been expected the past two years.

“I learned this back when I went to Green Bay as a player under Mike Holmgren,” Pederson said. “He always taught us that it takes three to four years. It takes that time to develop into the quarterback that you want to become or you want for your team. And it’s just not an overnight deal, it’s not a plug-and-play deal and some teams, some guys are going to have success [quicker].

“And so for Trevor, he’s now into that third year with us, and that’s the encouraging part as an offensive staff, especially myself, just now going into that third year, and this is kind of that jump year that he can have moving forward.”