Why the Jaguars should (and shouldn’t) draft an offensive tackle in the first round

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t picking a player in the top 10 of the NFL draft for the first time since 2018.

They’re not even picking in the middle.

The Jaguars have the No. 24 overall pick, which makes it challenging to predict which player the team will take. Though the Jaguars won the AFC South and advanced to the divisional round before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last season, there are multiple needs that must be addressed — on offense and defense.

So which direction should the Jaguars go at No. 24?

In perusing the numerous mock drafts out there, four positions have emerged as the most common: Offensive tackle, cornerback, tight end and edge rusher. Each week until the draft we’ll examine one of them and tell you why the Jaguars should or shouldn’t go in that direction. ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid also gives a best fit at the position for Jacksonville. Offensive tackle is up first:

Offensive tackle

Prospects to watch: Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State), Peter Skoronski (Northwestern), Broderick Jones (Georgia), Darnell Wright (Tennessee), O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida), Dawand Jones (Ohio State), Anton Harrison (Oklahoma) and Jaelyn Duncan (Maryland).

The Jaguars lost Jawaan Taylor in free agency to Kansas City, who gave the 2019 second-round pick a four-year contract worth $80 million with $60 million guaranteed. Taylor had the best year of his career in 2022, with a pass block win rate of 88.9% and allowed only six sacks. Through his first three seasons he had allowed an NFL-high 40 sacks and had a pass block win rate of 84.5%.

Was Taylor’s improved play because he was in a contract year or the presence of new offensive line coach Phil Rauscher? That doesn’t really matter, but what does is finding a way to replace that production — not only in 2023 but beyond.

Walker Little, the team’s 2021 second-round pick, is expected to take over as the starter at right tackle. He lost the 2022 training camp battle to Taylor and played the majority of last season as the swing tackle until starting the final five games (including playoffs) at left tackle after Cam Robinson went down with a knee injury.

The Jaguars have to find someone that can play either both tackle spots or someone they feel comfortable stepping in at right tackle if there’s an injury to Little or Robinson. (Little would move to left tackle if Robinson were hurt.) Little was a left tackle in college at Stanford and has been solid at that spot in his two years filling in for an injured Robinson.

Robinson has been an average left tackle in his career. He ranked 40th in pass block win rate among left tackles who played at least 1,000 snaps from 2017-22, and his 35 sacks allowed over that same span ranked 16th among left tackles. The Jaguars could view Little as the future at left tackle and can move on from Robinson after the 2023 season, a move that would save the team $17.75 million.

That means there could be a hole at right tackle starting in 2024, so taking an offensive tackle in the upcoming draft makes a lot of sense.

“Overall, [the draft] has a top-heavy offensive tackle group. There could be as many as eight selected inside of the top 50 picks, but six are viewed as potential first-round selections (Johnson Jr., Skoronski, Broderick Jones, Wright, Harrison and Dawand Jones),” ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid said.

Though the majority of the first-round projected tackles are left tackles, multiple players — including Johnson and Skoronski — have played both tackle spots and at guard, as well. Torrence was a guard in college at Louisiana and Florida, but has game experience at right tackle, too.

That gives the Jaguars the flexibility to have a rookie compete at left guard with Ben Bartch (who is coming off a knee injury) and Tyler Shatley in 2023 then move to right tackle in 2024.

Reid’s best OT prospect fit for Jacksonville

Darnell Wright, Tennessee — The tackle situation in Jacksonville is interesting. Taylor exits after signing a lucrative deal with the Chiefs, Robinson returns from injury and Little showed a lot of promise after getting his opportunity as a starter. Wright has experience at both tackle spots and at guard, but he would give them another option in case Robinson is unable to stay healthy. He also could kick inside to guard early on where the team has some question marks right now on the depth chart. — Reid

Why the Jaguars shouldn’t draft an OT

Now, unless the plan is to make the rookie the starting left guard, taking an offensive tackle means the Jaguars will essentially get nothing out of their first-round pick in 2022. This isn’t a team that’s so loaded with talent that it can afford to wait a year (or more) on production from their top pick.

The Jaguars have a player ready to step in to replace Taylor in Little so they can wait to find a swing tackle later in the draft or even wait until 2024. While releasing Robinson after this season does save a significant amount of money, it’s not a move the team has to make. The salary cap is estimated to increase to $250-plus million in 2024 and the team doesn’t have to sign quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a big-money extension after this season so there’s plenty of money available to afford Robinson and pursue a free agent tackle if desired.

For depth, the Jaguars signed two free agent tackles earlier this week who have limited experience starting. Those additions quiet the need to draft a tackle with the No. 24 overall pick.

Jacksonville should take a player that helps immediately, especially if it’s a cornerback or edge rusher because of the elite quarterbacks in the AFC.