Rookie prop bets to make right now

Let’s start with some context: Twelve rookie QBs have thrown for 19-plus TDs over the past decade. They averaged 244.7 rush yards and 2.5 rush TDs. Of the seven rookie QBs who rushed for 350-plus yards during the span, only Kyler Murray reached 19 pass TDs (he had exactly 20). The other six all finished with fewer than 12 pass TDs.

This data is relevant to Daniels as he’s an elite rusher (488-3,990-34 career rushing line in college) and sure to convert several potential pass TDs into scramble/rushing TDs.

Bo Nix under 17.5 pass TDs (-115)

Clay’s projection: 16 pass TDs

Only five of the 53 QBs drafted after the sixth pick in the past decade have thrown at least 18 pass TDs in their rookie season. Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft, has a shot to start Week 1, but that isn’t a lock. He also doesn’t have an impressive supporting cast beyond Courtland Sutton.

If Nix can quickly prove that he is the real deal and stays healthy, he should clear this number, but I’d rather bet on history here.

Brock Bowers under 675.5 receiving yards (-115)

Clay’s projection: 653 receiving yards

Believe it or not, only nine tight ends in NFL history have more than 675 receiving yards as a rookie. Three of those instances have come over the past decade: Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram.

While Bowers’ pedigree is certainly noticeable, only two of those nine tight ends (Pitts and Engram) have reached over this line. Bowers, the 13th overall pick, will get one more game than some of the players on this list, but will battle for targets with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and 2022 second-round pick Michael Mayer.

Add in an underwhelming QB room led by Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell and it’s safe to expect Bowers to take some time to develop into a major producer in Las Vegas.

Marvin Harrison Jr. over 1,000.5 receiving yards (-125) and Malik Nabers over 850.5 receiving yards (-115)

Clay’s projections:
Marvin Harrison Jr. 1,116 receiving yards
Malik Nabers 1,032 receiving yards

I’m placing these two together because the evidence for why these prop lines are too low is roughly the same for both players. Take a look at the production of wide receivers who, like Harrison and Nabers, were selected with a top-six draft pick over the past decade: Amari Cooper (1,070 yards, 16 games), Sammy Watkins (982, 16), Ja’Marr Chase (1,455, 17), Corey Davis (375, 11), Jaylen Waddle (1,015, 16).

It’s a small sample, but four of the five wideouts produced at least 982 yards, with Davis (who missed five games) the only one to fall short. If we include all rookie WRs during the 10-year span, 16 reached 851 yards, and nine of them cleared 1,000. And several of those performances came prior to the league expanding to a 17-game regular season.

The eight rookie WRs picked in the top 10 who appeared in 12-plus games over the past decade averaged a 24% target share (seven of eight in the 22-25 percent range), which suggests both Harrison and Nabers — who have minimal target competition — will be heavily utilized right out of the gate.

Rome Odunze over 725.5 receiving yards (-110)

Clay’s projections: 806 yards

Odunze was drafted No. 9 overall by the Chicago Bears, so a majority of the analysis applied to Harrison and Nabers also works here.

Eight of the 11 WRs picked in the top 10 over the past decade reached at least 726 receiving yards. John Ross, Mike Williams and Corey Davis failed to reach that mark.

A roadblock for Odunze is Chicago’s loaded WR depth that includes Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. However, even with both Allen and Moore involved, Odunze should receive around an 18% target share, which should allow him to push past 800 receiving yards.

Last season, 42 wide receivers reached 726 receiving yards, and six of them were rookies. Odunze has a shot at surpassing this number even if Moore and Allen stay relatively healthy, and he figures to blow by it if one of them misses significant action.

Xavier Worthy under 750.5 receiving yards (-125)

Clay’s projection: 685 receiving yards

Worthy is joining a terrific Chiefs offense, but this line is a bit too high. Unlike the other wide receivers mentioned in this column, Worthy was not an early first-round pick — and that matters. Only six of the 20 WRs picked between picks No. 20 and 32 over the past decade reached 751 receiving yards.

Worthy joins a Kansas City offense that features tight end Travis Kelce and generally spreads the ball among its wide receivers. Only one Chiefs WR has reached 751 receiving yards each of the past seven seasons. The year prior to the start of that streak (2016) is also interesting, as it was Tyreek Hill‘s rookie season. Hill, to whom Worthy has drawn comps, led the Chiefs in receiving yards that year… but with only 593 yards.

With Kelce and Marquise Brown in the mix, expect the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to turn to a more balanced offense, just as they had in the second half of 2023, signaling that this under is the right play.